{
  "title": "Fed and crypto legislation contract snapshot",
  "observedOn": "2026-09-15",
  "method": "Public venue API responses; midpoint = (best YES bid + best YES ask) / 2 only when both sides are positive. Prices are fractions of a $1 payout. No probability normalization or venue averaging. Retrieval times differ. API record update times are not assumed to be quote timestamps.",
  "markets": [
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.626785+00:00",
      "id": "2252242",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": null,
      "yesAsk": 0.001,
      "yesMidpoint": null,
      "lastTrade": 0.001,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:09:57.568007Z",
      "rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "No two-sided midpoint when bid missing or zero."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.626785+00:00",
      "id": "2252243",
      "question": "Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.001,
      "yesAsk": 0.002,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.0015,
      "lastTrade": 0.002,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:09:57.568007Z",
      "rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.626785+00:00",
      "id": "2252244",
      "question": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.1,
      "yesAsk": 0.11,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.105,
      "lastTrade": 0.11,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:09:57.568007Z",
      "rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.626785+00:00",
      "id": "2252245",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.88,
      "yesAsk": 0.89,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.885,
      "lastTrade": 0.88,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:09:57.568007Z",
      "rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.626785+00:00",
      "id": "2252246",
      "question": "Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.008,
      "yesAsk": 0.009,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.0085,
      "lastTrade": 0.009,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:09:57.568007Z",
      "rules": "The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.\n\nThis market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.\n\nIf the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)\n\nThe resolution source for this market is the FOMC\u2019s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.\n\nThe level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.\n\nThis market may resolve as soon as the FOMC\u2019s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the \"No change\" bracket.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Polymarket",
      "sourceUrl": "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/events/slug/clarity-act-signed-into-law-in-2026",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627157+00:00",
      "id": "1163699",
      "question": "Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?",
      "yesBid": 0.17,
      "yesAsk": 0.18,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.175,
      "lastTrade": 0.18,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-09-15T10:11:59.654498Z",
      "rules": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to \"No\".\n\nThe primary resolution source is Congress.gov\u2019s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.",
      "additionalRules": null,
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP?with_nested_markets=true",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627279+00:00",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.0,
      "yesAsk": 0.01,
      "yesMidpoint": null,
      "lastTrade": 0.01,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-12T20:14:41.499074Z",
      "rules": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of   25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
      "priceCaveat": "No two-sided midpoint when bid missing or zero."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP?with_nested_markets=true",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627279+00:00",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-C25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.0,
      "yesAsk": 0.01,
      "yesMidpoint": null,
      "lastTrade": 0.01,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-12T20:14:41.499074Z",
      "rules": "If the Federal Reserve does a Cut of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
      "priceCaveat": "No two-sided midpoint when bid missing or zero."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP?with_nested_markets=true",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627279+00:00",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H0",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.12,
      "yesAsk": 0.13,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.125,
      "lastTrade": 0.13,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-12T20:14:41.499074Z",
      "rules": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP?with_nested_markets=true",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627279+00:00",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.87,
      "yesAsk": 0.88,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.875,
      "lastTrade": 0.88,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-12T20:14:41.499074Z",
      "rules": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/events/KXFEDDECISION-26SEP?with_nested_markets=true",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:00.627279+00:00",
      "id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H26",
      "question": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
      "yesBid": 0.0,
      "yesAsk": 0.01,
      "yesMidpoint": null,
      "lastTrade": 0.01,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-12T20:14:41.499074Z",
      "rules": "If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on September 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "This market is mutually exclusive. Therefore, if the Federal Reserve hikes by 50bps, the 50bps market will resolve to Yes and the 25bps market will resolve to No. Only one bucket, at maximum, can resolve to Yes. Note 4/28/25: For the markets beginning after the May meeting, if a scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, then the strike for \"Fed maintains rate\" will resolve to Yes and all others will resolve to No.",
      "priceCaveat": "No two-sided midpoint when bid missing or zero."
    },
    {
      "venue": "Kalshi",
      "sourceUrl": "https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets/KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27",
      "retrievedAt": "2026-09-15T10:15:23.389824+00:00",
      "id": "KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE-26JAN-27",
      "question": "Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Jan 1, 2027?",
      "yesBid": 0.18,
      "yesAsk": 0.2,
      "yesMidpoint": 0.19,
      "lastTrade": 0.2,
      "recordUpdatedAt": "2026-08-11T14:41:52.584915Z",
      "rules": "If a crypto market structure bill has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.",
      "additionalRules": "For purposes of this Contract, \"crypto market structure legislation\" means any bill that does all of the following:\n\nEstablishes a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, cryptocurrencies, or virtual currencies (but not solely for stablecoins); AND\nDelineates regulatory authority between federal agencies (such as the SEC, CFTC, or others) for oversight of digital assets; AND\nCreates definitions, classifications, or categories for when digital assets are considered securities, commodities, or other regulatory classifications.\n\nThe following would NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion:\n\nBills that solely regulate stablecoins without addressing broader crypto market structure;\nBills that only ban or restrict specific crypto activities without creating a regulatory framework;\nBills that only address Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs);\nAppropriations bills that merely fund crypto-related activities;\nBills that only address crypto taxation without market structure provisions;\nExecutive orders, regulatory guidance, or agency rules (only Congressional legislation counts);\nBills that pass only one chamber of Congress;\nBills that are vetoed and not overridden;\nState legislation of any kind\n\nExamples that WOULD meet the Payout Criterion:\n\nThe Digital Asset Market Clarity (CLARITY) Act, if passed by both chambers and signed into law;\nThe Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act (FIT21), if passed by both chambers and signed into law;\nAny omnibus bill that includes comprehensive crypto market structure provisions as described above.\n\nExamples that would NOT meet the Payout Criterion:\n\nThe GENIUS Act or STABLE Act (stablecoin-only legislation);\nThe Anti-CBDC Surveillance State Act (CBDC-specific);\nA bill that passes the House but not the Senate;\nAn executive order directing agencies to study crypto regulation.",
      "priceCaveat": "Midpoint is indicative, not an executable offer or objective probability."
    }
  ]
}